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Event risk and pre-selling

Testing two dates or two cities without running three events

By Emmanuel Akangbou
OrganizersPromotersTouring performers

List both options as separate pre-sales with the same minimum and the same deadline, and say plainly in each description that only one will go ahead. Whichever reaches its minimum is the one you run. Nobody is charged on the other, and you have replaced a guess with an answer for the cost of writing two listings.

The decision you cannot reason your way to

Some choices genuinely have a right answer you can work out. Whether a Thursday or a Saturday suits your audience is not one of them. Neither is whether a thing that works in one neighbourhood works two miles away.

Organizers spend a lot of energy on these questions and arrive at confident conclusions with nothing behind them. Then they commit, and find out.

The alternative is to stop deciding. Put both in front of people and let the reservations answer, which takes about the same effort as agonising and produces information instead of a hunch.

How to run the test

  1. 1

    Change exactly one variable

    Two dates, or two cities, or two prices. Never two at once. If the listings differ in date and price, a result tells you nothing about which factor caused it, and you have spent the test without learning anything.

  2. 2

    Use the same minimum and the same deadline

    Different thresholds make the outcomes incomparable. Same number, same date, same description apart from the variable you are testing.

  3. 3

    Say clearly that only one will happen

    One line in both descriptions. Somebody reserving for the option that does not win should have known that was possible before they entered card details, not discovered it afterwards.

  4. 4

    Promote both to the same people

    Send them together in the same message as a choice. Promoting one harder than the other tests your promotion rather than your audience's preference.

That third step is not optional politeness. Selling something while concealing that it might not exist is a different thing from running an honest conditional listing, and the difference is entirely in whether you said so.

What each test tells you

TestWorth it whenWhat you learnWatch out for
Two datesYou have no read on which night your audience is freeWhich slot your people can actually makeSeasonal noise. One date near a holiday is not a fair comparison
Two citiesYou are considering touring or expandingWhere the audience actually is, before travel costsYour reach is probably uneven between the two
Two pricesYour break-even allows eitherWhat the market tolerates, from behaviour rather than opinionList the higher one first. Anchoring works against you otherwise
Two formatsRarelyVery little. Two different events attract two different audiencesThis is not one test. It is two events with a shared deadline
Three tests worth running, and one that is not

The city test has an asymmetry worth naming. You almost certainly know more people in one place than the other, so a weak result in the unfamiliar city may reflect your reach rather than the market. Adjust for that before concluding anything.

Never run more than two

Three parallel listings feels like more information and produces less. A small audience split three ways leaves each option too thin to clear a minimum, so all three release and you have learned only that people were confused.

There is a reputational cost as well. An organizer with three simultaneous versions of the same event looks unsure, and uncertainty is contagious to the reader deciding whether to commit.

Two is the limit. If you have four candidate dates, pick the two you genuinely cannot separate and test those. The other two were never real contenders, and pretending otherwise turns a clean experiment into a survey nobody asked to take part in.

What to do with the loser

Message the people who reserved for the option that did not win, the same day, before they notice. Tell them the other date is going ahead, that they have not been charged, and how to move across if they want to.

A meaningful proportion will move, and they are already sold on the event itself. Handled promptly this is a warm list rather than a disappointment, and handled slowly it is the opposite.

Keep the losing option in mind rather than discarding it. A date that got half your minimum is not a failure. It is a second event you now know something about, and running it three months later with a smaller room is often the right move.

One planning note: pre-sale deadlines run up to 60 days, and free events and pre-sales are not counted against the free plan's three paid direct-sale events per month, so parallel testing this way does not use up that allowance.

Reading a result that is close

Clean results are rare. Usually one option is a few reservations ahead and neither has cleared the minimum with a week to go, which is the situation nobody plans for and everybody ends up in.

The honest reading is that your audience has no strong preference, which is itself an answer. It means the date was never the constraint, and the thing limiting you is how many people know the event exists.

At that point the right move is usually to consolidate. Pick the option you prefer for practical reasons, tell everyone on the other listing that you are merging the two, and put the remaining time into reach rather than into the choice. Two half-full listings become one that clears, and the people who reserved get an event instead of a release.

Do that early enough to matter. Consolidating with a week left works. Consolidating the day before your deadline is just a cancellation with extra steps, and it leaves nobody time to rearrange their evening.

The limits of this

When to skip the test entirely

If one option is clearly better for you and you are only testing to feel more certain, run that one. Testing is for genuine indifference, not for reassurance, and a listing you were always going to abandon wastes the goodwill of whoever reserved on it.

Skip it too if you already have history. Three previous events tell you more about which night works than a two-week experiment will, and your own attendance records are a better dataset than anything a single test can produce.

Common questions

How do I choose the best date for my event?
List both candidate dates as conditional reservations with an identical minimum and deadline, say clearly that only one will run, and let the reservations decide. Your own attendance history from previous events is better still if you have it.
Can I run two versions of the same event at once?
Yes, provided both descriptions state that only one will go ahead. Keep it to two, because splitting a small audience three ways leaves every option short of its minimum and teaches you nothing.
Is it dishonest to advertise an event that might not happen?
Not if you say so. A conditional listing that states the minimum, the deadline and the fact that only one option will run is straightforward. Concealing that possibility is the part that would be a problem.
How many people do I need for a split test to be meaningful?
Roughly a hundred people seeing both options. Below that the difference between the two is mostly noise, and you would be better off promoting a single option properly than splitting a small audience.

About the author

Emmanuel Akangbou

Founder, Quborly

Emmanuel builds Quborly, an online marketplace and technology platform for events and communities. He writes about the money and logistics side of running events, which is the part most guides skip.

More about Quborly

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How to Choose an Event Date by Testing Both · Quborly